Carmelle and JUNHEE Won the Same Way — Is That a Eurovision Asia Pattern, or Just Two Data Points?

Two of Eurovision Asia’s competitive national finals have now been decided, and they look more alike than the contest’s diversity of countries and formats would suggest. Both winners had already won on television before this. Both finals used the exact same voting split. That’s either the beginning of a real pattern, or it’s two data points doing what small samples always do — looking like a trend right up until they don’t.

Worth being honest about which, rather than declaring a trend off two results.

The winners: known quantities, not discoveries

Carmelle won Pili, Pinas! Philippine Selection Night on 30 August with “Sobra-Sobra.” Before that, she was already a champion — of Tawag ng Tanghalan: The School Showdown 2025 — and a runner-up on The Voice Kids Philippines in 2019. She wasn’t a surprise the jury or public discovered on the night; she was a known competitor who’d already proven she could win a televised vote.

JUNHEE won Korea’s Next Wave on 4 September with “Deep Dive.” He’d spent 2017 to 2025 as a member of boy band A.C.E. before going solo — an established performer with a real career behind him, not an unknown from an open casting call.

Neither win was a discovery story. Both were “the industry’s proven quantity beat the field.”

That’s not universal, though. Bhutan’s Nyendra — the first artist ever selected for Eurovision Asia, back on 11 August — is the counter-example sitting right there: an independent singer-songwriter who writes and produces his own material, with no prior televised competition on his résumé at all. If “known quantities win” were a hard rule, Bhutan would have been the exception that broke it before Philippines and South Korea even got a chance to set it.

The voting split: three for three, but maybe not meaningfully

Philippines and South Korea both ran the identical 40% jury / 40% national public / 20% Rest of the World split. So, for what it’s worth, did Bhutan.

That’s three finals out of three using the same formula — a cleaner run than the “known quantity” pattern above. But it’s worth asking what that actually tells us. If 40/40/20 is simply the template Eurovision Asia’s organisers recommended or defaulted broadcasters toward, then every country using it is a fact about administrative convenience, not a competitive dynamic. It would predict nothing about who wins; it would just mean everyone filled in the same form. We don’t know which explanation is true yet — only that nobody has deviated from it so far.

Why two or three data points isn’t a trend

Malaysia complicates this further rather than clarifying it. Aina Abdul is also an established, decorated name rather than an unknown — which would support the “known quantity” pattern — but she wasn’t chosen through a competitive public vote at all; TV3 selected her internally. She’s evidence for a broader industry preference, maybe, but not a fourth data point for how voters behave, because voters were never involved.

So what we actually have, cleanly, is: two competitive finals decided so far under comparable conditions (Philippines and South Korea), both won by a previously-proven competitor. That is a real observation. It is not yet a sample size anyone should build a prediction model on.

What would actually tell us something

Seven selections remain, in order: Laos (23–24 September), Thailand (27 September), Bangladesh (30 September), Vietnam (3 October), Nepal (7 October, postponed from 19 September), Mongolia (10 October) and Cambodia (17 October). Two of those — Laos and Vietnam — are song votes for an already-chosen artist rather than open finals. That’s the contest at 2-for-9 on competitive finals actually decided, counting only the finals comparable to Philippines and South Korea’s format.

If three or four more of those go to previously-proven competitors under the same 40/40/20 split, that’s a real pattern worth taking seriously when modelling the field. If the next few break the other way — an unknown winning, or a broadcaster quietly changing its split — then Philippines and South Korea were simply the first two dice rolls, not a formula.

Update, 7 October: five more results, and what they do to the pattern

Five of those seven selections have now been decided. The picture is clearer on one question and murkier on the other.

The split is settled. Laos, Thailand, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Nepal all used 40/40/20 — including three that had been described beforehand as 50/50. That is eight finals out of eight. The “administrative template” explanation looks right: this is how the contest’s national finals are built, not a choice each broadcaster is making independently.

The “known quantity” pattern is harder to call. Two of the five were song votes for an artist chosen in advance — Laos and Vietnam — and say nothing about how voters choose between performers. That leaves three new open finals:

• Thailand went to Mang & Daou. Daou had already won a televised survival show on a public vote, which fits the pattern.
• Bangladesh went to Beatmosphere, an a cappella and beatbox group that has been performing since 2009. Established, certainly — but nobody’s idea of the safe industry choice.
• Nepal went to Pratik Himal Rai, a singer-songwriter Himalaya TV’s audience already knew from The Voice of Nepal in 2025. A familiar television face rather than a newcomer, which leans towards the pattern.

So among open finals the count is roughly four for the pattern (the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Nepal), one against (Bhutan), and one that doesn’t fit either box (Bangladesh).

That is still not a sample to build a model on — and not only because it is small. Of the eight finals, only Bhutan’s published its points. We know who won the others, but not whether juries or the public carried them, which is exactly what a claim about voter behaviour would need. We set that problem out in Eight national finals, one scoreboard.

Update, 14 October: Mongolia makes it nine for nine

Mongolia’s Chosen One on 10 October used the same 40/40/20 split, so the template now holds across nine national finals out of nine. It was a song vote for Beck, who was chosen in advance, so like Laos and Vietnam it says nothing about how voters choose between performers. And it announced a top three without any points, which leaves Bhutan’s as the only national final with a public scoreboard. The full list is in Nine national finals, one scoreboard.

Cambodia’s Finest Voice, on 17 October, is the last open final of the season, and the last chance for this pattern to get another data point before Bangkok.

Track the remaining dates on the national selections calendar, and follow who’s confirmed on the confirmed artists tracker.

First published 5 September 2026. Last updated 14 October 2026.